China and Taiwan: the "Samson option" that prevents a war and anticipates more conflicts

2022-07-31 21:28:11 By : Ms. Cindy Wang

Pachamama DayTaiwan leads in semiconductor manufacturing.TSMC company chips are everywhere, millions of electronic products, including cell phones, computers and cars.Photo: An Rong Xu, The New York Times.Dear reader, from the comfort of reading this article, probably from a mobile phone or laptop, you will be surprised to learn that the more than 4 billion human beings who are already connected to the rest of the world through the Internet we depend on a tiny island nation located 180 kilometers from mainland China.This is the Republic of China, commonly known as Taiwan.And this is so because Taiwan leads the manufacture of semiconductors, a basic input for almost any device that flashes a tiny light on its board or screen.The chips of the Asian company TSMC are everywhere, although most of us consumers do not know it.Its developments are in millions of electronic products, including cell phones, computers and cars.TSMC has been expanding around the world for years and in the face of the current crisis due to the lack of production and supply of chips, it is now positioned with enormous influence over the global economy.With a market capitalization of around $500 billion, it ranks as the 22nd most valuable company in the world, according to Fortune magazine, and manufactures 84% ​​of the world's advanced chips under 10 nanometers. , according to the European Institute for Asian Studies in Brussels.In part, TSMC and its dominant role in a market whose supply chain is vital to hundreds or even thousands of activities around the globe explain why the military threats orchestrated this year by Xi Jinping's People's Republic of China have been left alone. in that.If this supply were interrupted, it would take about five years to replace it.Thus, if Taiwan were at existential risk, it could shut down production of its own advanced semiconductor factories and take the planet into the last century.The break in the supply of this fundamental input cannot be immediately replaced, and building a comparable technological and industrial capacity would take at least five years, according to several experts.This disruption would generate a more serious and profound shock than the outflow of agricultural raw materials due to the war in Eastern Europe.Unleashed by Russia the war in Ukraine, Beijing began early to mobilize its army with maneuvers near the jurisdictional waters of Taipei;it intruded into its adjacent airspace with fighter jets, and even launched missiles to intimidate the Tsai Ing-wen government.The unsuspecting reader should not miss the 73-year conflict between China and Taiwan.The island that was also known as "Formosa" was the refuge since 1949 of the leaders of the Nationalist Party, defeated in the civil war that crowned Mao Tse-Tung and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the founding fathers of the regime that was extends these days from the Himalayas to the Yellow Sea.In August, popular China once again celebrates a new anniversary of the triumph of its army and new confrontational actions are feared, even more so when the visit of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, is considered an offense in China.In parallel, the US Senate approved millionaire incentives to attract investment from the semiconductor industry.Since then, the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan, or Chinese Taipei) have disputed the territorial sovereignty of the immense country, and closer in time, Beijing has launched a virulent diplomatic campaign to prevent its rival from recognizing other states and submission to the prevailing order in Beijing, under the slogan "One China".In the Latin American region, the nations that recognize Taiwan can be counted almost on the fingers of one hand.Less endowed in military forces, weapons and economic power, Taiwan still resists and keeps in its power a last resort that would shake China and the developed economies.Just as Samson, according to the biblical account, managed to eliminate his Philistine enemies by knocking down the columns of the temple where he had been taken for mockery, and gave up his life in that enterprise, Taiwan is capable of causing a technological blackout if Xi Jinping's China dare to go from acting to action, or if its Western allies leave it helpless.Washington, Tokyo and Brussels are no strangers to this delicate issue, which makes technological supremacy and economic leadership of the years to come.The United States, Japan and the European Union have been discussing how to circumvent a possible Chinese blockade on the island, while TSMC is already working to move part of its production to other countries.In this delicate context, such an emphatic statement by the President of the United States, Joe Biden, on his first tour of Asia, and the fifth telephone communication with the Chinese leader, which occurred this week in the heat of the reappearing challenges, should be interpreted.Consulted by the press, Biden did not hesitate to assure that his country would defend Taiwan if China invaded;abandoning the historical ambiguity on the subject.Later, the White House clarified that the ambivalence would continue.In parallel, the European Union recently approved a gigantic investment package to increase regional manufacturing of advanced chips and thus expand its market share, as a way to cut dependency on Asia.The power of Taiwanese chips has the world looking at tensions in the Far East as a potential problem nearby.Mookie Tenembaum is an international analyst and philosopher.Commenting on Clarín's notes is exclusively for subscribers.To comment you must activate your account by clicking on the e-mail that we sent you to the boxDidn't find the email?Click here and we will resend it to you.To comment on our notes, please complete the following information.The most important news of the day, to read with breakfast.The most important of each day, the 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CABA, ArgentinaIssue No.: 9614 July 31, 2022You are already a Clarín subscriberOwner Graphic Art Editorial Argentino SA © 1996-2022 Clarín.com - Clarín Digital - All rights reserved.Read the paper edition